2026년 2월 7일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Yahoo Finance
I am pretty sure no crypto trader who experienced Oct. 10 ever imagined they would have to endure so many brutal sell-offs afterward.
Fast-forward to today, and the crypto market resembles the landscape after a hurricane. Battered, scattered, and struggling to come back to normal.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has plunged into single digits, flashing "Extreme Fear" at the score of 9. Bitcoin is down nearly 47% from its October peak and is changing hands around $66,900 at press time.
And if there’s any truth to the saying that history repeats itself, the pain may not be over yet, at least according to analysts at Stifel.
Related: Bitcoin crashes below $70K, wiping out millions of dollars
The Fed’s hawkish stance could be fueling Bitcoin’s slide
Analysts at the 136-year-old investment bank and financial services company linked Bitcoin’s current weakness to recent moves by the Federal Reserve, as per a recent Decrypt report.
They argued that a “hawkish cut” in December signaled a more cautious, data-dependent approach to monetary policy.
Despite expectations for easing, the central bank has held interest rates steady so far in 2026, amplifying concerns about tightening liquidity.
Stifel added that members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continue to reject the idea of an “inflationary boom,” particularly amid trade tensions and tariff uncertainty, that could mark the true bottom for Bitcoin.
The analysts compared today’s rhetoric to Chair Jerome Powell’s 2022 speech in Jackson Hole, where he warned that “there will be pain” as policymakers sought to crush inflation.
The market took another hit on Feb. 6 after President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh, a known inflation hawk, to succeed Powell. Traders have interpreted the move as a signal for sustained higher rates.New Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh (Source: Getty Images)
Structural shifts may weaken Bitcoin’s hedge narrative
Beyond monetary policy, Stifel identified a bigger structural change. Bitcoin hasn’t benefited from a weaker dollar in the past year, breaking from its historical pattern.
Analysts attributed this shift to the effects of Trump’s trade war and how strong economic growth has reshaped inflation expectations.
Even as global dollar liquidity expands, Bitcoin has failed to respond, eroding its reputation as a hedge against fiat debasement.
The firm also pointed to the drag from AI-driven investments and mounting credit stress, which have hit both tech stocks and crypto markets.
Bitcoin’s decline comes even as the Nasdaq 100 Index hovers near record highs. This has widened the gap between digital assets and equities. Stifel described that divergence as “ominous,” hinting that Bitcoin’s weakness could foreshadow turbulence ahead for tech investors as well.
Story Continues
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Stifel sees a familiar pattern in Bitcoin’s pain
Stifel has issued a stark warning that Bitcoin could still have much further to fall.
In a note to clients, the analysts projected a potential slide to $38,000. This would be a drop of over 43% from current levels around $66,929 as of Feb.6.
The team drew on more than a decade of Bitcoin’s price cycles, noting that past “super-bears” saw dramatic drawdowns:
93% in 2011, 84% in 2014, 83% in 2018, and 76% in 2022.
Based on that ascending pattern of lows, Stifel estimated a 70% peak-to-trough decline this time, while stressing that this represents a worst-case scenario.
Related: Analyst predicts Bitcoin drop to $40K following $1T market wipeout
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Feb 6, 2026, where it first appeared in the Trading News & Analysis section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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