2026년 2월 8일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Yahoo Finance
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The fair value estimate for Johnson Controls International has shifted from about US$131.50 to roughly US$138.11 per share, as refreshed research has fed updated revenue growth assumptions of around 5.56% into earnings models. At the same time, a slightly higher discount rate of about 9.38% means analysts are balancing that stronger top line view with some restraint when translating those cash flows into present value. Stay with this article to see how these moving targets are being shaped by new research and how you can keep on top of the changing narrative from here.
Analyst Price Targets don't always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value Johnson Controls International.
What Wall Street Has Been Saying
🐂 Bullish Takeaways
Several firms have recently lifted their price targets for Johnson Controls International, including Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Melius Research, and others on February 5. This signals that a number of analysts see room for the shares to support higher valuation levels than before. Melius Research upgraded Johnson Controls to Buy from Hold on January 7 with a US$148 price target, arguing that the drivers of the current applied HVAC "supercycle" are broader than data center demand alone, and pointing to what it sees as an overreaction to concerns about future cooling architectures. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to US$130 from US$125 on January 13 and kept an Overweight rating after updating estimates ahead of earnings. This suggests the firm sees the company’s execution and earnings profile as supportive of its revised target. Barclays moved its target to US$125 from US$119 on January 7, citing a "firmer" demand outlook linked to artificial intelligence related orders, which it connects to the broader multi industry group that includes Johnson Controls. Across RBC Capital, Mizuho, Goldman Sachs, Baird, and Barclays on February 5, multiple incremental target increases indicate that a cluster of neutral to bullish analysts are willing to ascribe higher values to Johnson Controls International as they refresh their models.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
Some of the January commentary, such as Barclays keeping an Equal Weight rating even as it raised its target, implies that not every firm sees clear upside from current levels, and that parts of the market may view recent optimism as at least partly reflected in the share price already. The focus from several firms on updated estimates and specific catalysts, like AI related demand and the HVAC cycle, also points to near term risks if those themes soften or if earnings updates do not align with the refreshed expectations baked into higher price targets.
Story Continues
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!NYSE:JCI 1-Year Stock Price Chart
What's in the News
Johnson Controls completed a long running share repurchase program first announced in 2012, buying back 439,353,134 shares in total for US$23.18b, including 43,336,571 shares for US$5,020.6 million between July 1 and September 30, 2025. The company issued earnings guidance for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 and maintained its full year 2026 guidance, pointing to expected organic sales growth of about 5% for the quarter and mid single digit organic sales growth for the year, supported by execution and backlog visibility. Johnson Controls introduced the YORK YDAM air cooled magnetic bearing centrifugal chiller aimed at high density multistory data centers and AI factories, with 3.5 MW of cooling capacity, a compact footprint to address space and water use constraints, and shipments planned to begin in late 2026. The company previewed the high density YORK YK HT two stage economized centrifugal chiller and launched a 1 Gigawatt AI data center Reference Design Guide Series, both aimed at large scale AI and data center facilities with a focus on high temperature cooling loops, reduced water use, and alignment with NVIDIA DSX reference designs for 1 GW class AI factories.
How This Changes the Fair Value For Johnson Controls International
The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from about US$131.50 to roughly US$138.11 per share, reflecting updated model assumptions. The Discount Rate is marginally higher, moving from about 9.33% to roughly 9.38%, which can modestly temper the impact of higher cash flow expectations. The Revenue Growth assumption has edged up from around 5.34% to about 5.56%, pointing to slightly stronger projected top line expansion in the models used. The Net Profit Margin assumption has increased from roughly 12.84% to about 13.37%, indicating a small uplift in modeled profitability levels. The future P/E multiple has eased slightly from about 23.81x to roughly 23.59x, suggesting a modestly lower valuation multiple applied to forward earnings in the updated work.
🔔 Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative
Narratives on Simply Wall St let you connect the story you see for a company with the numbers you expect, like future revenue, earnings, margins and fair value. Each Narrative ties that story to a financial forecast, compares fair value to today’s share price, and updates when fresh news or earnings arrive. You will find these on the Community page, where millions of investors use them as a simple way to decide whether a stock looks expensive or attractive at any point in time.
If you want the fuller story behind Johnson Controls International, it is worth going back to the original Narrative that underpins this valuation update.
It explains how applied HVAC, Lean practices and expanded services are linked to revenue growth, margin assumptions and the fair value estimate used for Johnson Controls International. It…