2026년 2월 9일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Yahoo Finance
Investing.com -- JPMorgan downgraded Li Auto to underweight, warning that slowing demand, rising costs and policy uncertainty could weigh on the Chinese carmakers in 2026. Shares of Li Auto were down 3.4% in Monday premarket trading.
China’s auto industry is expected to mirror patterns seen in 2018 and 2025, with overall sector underperformance driven by declining passenger vehicle demand, alongside sharp volatility through the year tied to new model launches, seasonal trends and earnings surprises.
JPMorgan cut its forecast for 2026 domestic passenger vehicle growth to a 4% decline from an earlier 2% drop, saying weak demand in late 2025 is likely to carry into this year.
Strong exports may partly offset the slowdown, leaving wholesale volumes roughly flat. Growth in new energy vehicles is expected to slow to single digits.
The weaker outlook, combined with rising raw material costs, prompted the bank to lower earnings estimates for several major manufacturers, including BYD, Great Wall, Nio, Xpeng, Leapmotor and Li Auto.
Lithium, copper and storage chip prices have risen more than 30% to 50% recently, and JPMorgan expects cost pressure to spread through supply chains by the second quarter. The firm now sees Li Auto moving into a loss in 2026.
JPMorgan named Geely and Sinotruk as its top picks, saying their earnings outlooks remain more resilient. It raised estimates for Sinotruk and kept Geely forecasts unchanged, noting both sit above broader market expectations.
Exports are expected to play a larger role this year, potentially accounting for 20% to 50% of earnings at major automakers. Companies are expanding overseas distribution and accelerating local production in key markets to limit the impact of tariffs and trade policies.
JPMorgan said the sector could see selective buying opportunities emerge from March into the second quarter, supported by a seasonal rebound in demand, clarity on subsidy policy after China’s March policy meetings, supplier negotiations concluding and increased industry activity around the Beijing Auto Show in late April.
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