2026년 2월 9일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Yahoo Finance
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Hedge funds have begun leaning more decisively against the British pound, with options positioning pointing to growing downside caution after a volatile stretch for sterling. The move followed Feb. 5, when the currency slipped to a two-week low against both the euro and the dollar, coinciding with a Bank of England decision that came within a single vote of cutting interest rates. Political pressure added to the strain the same day, as concerns around UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership intensified after his chief of staff resigned over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington, reinforcing investor unease around the near-term policy backdrop.
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That shift has shown up most clearly in derivatives markets. The premium to hedge a fall in sterling versus the euro over the next month climbed to its highest level since late November on Feb. 5, while euro-sterling options volumes reached a high for the year, according to data from The Depository Trust and Clearing Corp. Call options that benefit from a weaker pound were about 50% larger than put options, underscoring what traders at Societe Generale and RBC Capital Markets described as one-way demand for euro-pound topside exposure. That flow pushed implied volatility sharply higher, with market participants noting that sterling has been trading with heightened sensitivity to global dollar strength and fast-moving political headlines.
The latest pressure comes on top of last year's move, when the pound weakened more than 5% against the euro. Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) see sterling potentially weakening 6% versus the euro over the next 12 months, while Nomura Holdings Inc. (NYSE:NMR) expects a 3% decline by end-April. Some analysts see risks lingering into mid-year as UK political uncertainty remains elevated, though Friday's rebound against both the euro and the dollar suggests the path lower may not be linear. Near-term direction could be influenced by upcoming US payrolls and inflation data, while political developments are likely to remain a key source of volatility.
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