2026년 2월 9일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Seeking Alpha
[Multiple exposure image of London buildings]
Tim Robberts
U.S. job growth has effectively stalled over the past year, an unusually long pause that is forcing the Federal Reserve to reassess the forces driving the labor market slowdown, according to TS Lombard's Dario Perkins.
Employment has been flat since early 2025, a pattern that historically has been associated with an impending recession. This time, however, Fed officials increasingly believe the weakness reflects supply constraints rather than a collapse in demand, a distinction with major implications for monetary policy.
Recent Fed analysis examining the relationship between wages and employment suggested that shrinking labor supply has been the dominant factor behind slower hiring. A sharp decline in immigration, including a net outflow of unauthorized workers, appears to have reduced the size of the U.S. labor force, TS Lombard said, citing Dallas Fed research.
While some policymakers and economists argue that weaker immigration affects both supply and demand, Perkins noted that the impact is uneven across sectors. Reduced labor mobility has increased mismatches in the job market, raising the risk of inflationary bottlenecks as wages tend to be slow to adjust downward.
At the same time, the research cautioned that demand has not disappeared entirely. Falling job vacancies and a gradual rise in unemployment suggest some cyclical weakness, particularly in manufacturing, construction, and consumer-facing industries—what the report described as a “blue-collar recession.”
The supply-demand distinction is critical for the Fed’s next moves. Weak demand would argue for policy easing to prevent deflationary pressures, while supply-driven constraints could keep inflation sticky and justify holding rates higher for longer.
With fiscal stimulus likely to support demand later this year, Perkins warned that a rebound in activity could reignite inflation if labor supply remains impaired.
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