2026년 2월 9일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Yahoo Finance
In his op-ed with Yahoo Finance, Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian examines the emergence of "anti-AI" themes in the market coming off of last week's sell-off in tech and software stocks.
El-Erian comes on the Morning Brief to comment on how more investors are being advised to rotate out of tech and the areas where volatility (^VIX, ^VVIX) is showing up, while sharing his expectations for the January jobs report due out this Wednesday and how President Trump's Federal Reserve nominee, Kevin Warsh, may be expected to lead the central bank if confirmed.
El-Erian is also the Rene M. Kern Practice Professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School.
Also be sure to read up on Mohamed El-Erian's op-ed for Yahoo Finance addressing investor rotation in the tech sector and AI.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief.
Video Transcript
00:00 Speaker A
Those tech stocks may be attempting or a comeback, but markets overall are not coming back again today after uh Friday's rebound. I was looking at the year-to-date numbers. Tech stocks, the worst performers in the S&P, energy stocks, the best performers, and we have seen that rotation here. But as you wrote in a a piece this weekend for Yahoo Finance, um, maybe people shouldn't be jumping on that rotation bandwagon. Why not?
00:46 Speaker B
So, good morning, Julie. Thank you for having me. Look, we we're coming from a very strong couple of years for tech, and rightly so, it was the AI theme. Um there's a sense that this was a little bit overdone, it was too generalized. So people are being recommended to rotate. Go to anti AI stocks. That's what you'll hear over and over again. That's why the Dow is having such a good year. That's why non US is having such a good year. I'm just cautious because in order for the rotation trade to work, it needs to be supported by a fundamental theme and not just by a technical theme and it's hard to find one. I much rather investors exploit structural opportunities. I'd much rather investors exploit tactical opportunities. For example, the AI sell off has been pretty indiscriminate, but there will be a handful of AI winners. Um so look more into the structural and opportunistic space and be careful of this automatic reaction to simply rotate into something that's not last year.
01:53 Speaker A
I I think that um investors are really struggling with where those AI winners and losers are going to be. That's part of maybe part of the reason why we're seeing this indiscriminate selling. Um and listen, I know that you're not a tech investor per se, Mohamed, but just sort of in terms of criteria, in terms of process, how do people try and figure that out?
02:18 Speaker B
So, there's certain names I'm highly confident about. Why? Because they have exactly as you say, certain characteristics. Think of Google. Google both has a vertical stack and horizontal stack. It can self finance a lot of its investment. It cannot be held hostage by the market. It can monetize its investment easier. So, there are certain names that you can make a very strong fundamental argument for. There are other names that are much more speculative. OpenAI is a much more speculative AI play than Google is. So you can look at these characteristics and ask the question, how resilient is my investment? Is there balance sheet strength? Is there human resilience? And how quickly can this company monetize what are enormous investment? Last week alone, two companies announced 400 billion of capex this year. These are very large numbers, Julie.
03:26 Speaker A
They are very large numbers and, you know, a lot of folks come on the show and they say, um maybe you don't need to make a bet on who's going to win and lose necessarily, but you can invest in what everybody's been calling the picks and shovels, right? The infrastructure. And some of that is in those places people have been rotating to, right? Industrials, for example, that service um or the grid, for example, you know, various plays on that. Do you think that's a a way to look as well at this whole situation?
04:00 Speaker B
It is a way to look. um but if you do so, just make sure you you know what the adoption policy is, what the diffusion policy is. There's two parts of AI. The one we mostly focus on, it is the frontier models, those working on AI. But monetization of these things you talked about is about something else completely. It's about those working with AI. How will adoption happen? Will it be even? Will it be fast? How inclusive will it be? So if you are in this space, make sure that you know what diffusion phenomenon you are betting on because we may not get the sort of diffusion that a lot of people are assuming when they go and go to all these opportunities that you're talking about.
04:47 Speaker A
And Mohamed, when you talk about also looking for um things that are sort of broken in the market. You gave one um example there, things maybe that have been oversold indiscriminately. Um how do you sort of define broken though more broadly and how people try to look for those opportunities in the market?
05:15 Speaker B
So when you have massive volatility and you've been talking about massive single name volatility, we've also had quite a bit of index volatility. But when you have volatility and that's one of the three themes for this year, what you're going to see is overreactions both on on the way up and the way down. So good stocks will sell indiscriminately and bad stocks will go up. So you've got to be much more selective. And then there's the opportunity of completing markets. For example, if you are part of the surge into private credit in advanced economies, ask yourself, what, how am I completing a market? You're not completing a market, there's so much money going in there. If you want private credit, go into emerging economies where there's much less capital. There's a market fa…