Trump Tariffs To Get The Green Light From Supreme Court? Here's What The Prediction Market Thinks

2026년 2월 11일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Yahoo Finance

The Supreme Court, during the last hearing, delayed a verdict in President Donald Trump's use of emergency powers to implement tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

Trump had earlier warned that the U.S. could face massive economic consequences if the Supreme Court ruled against the federal government for its tariff policies, suggesting potential repayments could escalate into trillions.

While the Supreme Court has not given a date for the next hearing, JPMorgan analysts Amy Ho and Joyce Chang noted that historically, the Supreme Court reserves its most consequential rulings for the end of its term in June, allowing for extended deliberation.

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Here's What The Prediction Market Is Betting On

Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $4.9 million has been bet on the contract "Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump’s tariffs?"

Most bettors think that the Supreme Court will not rule in favor of the Trump tariffs.

As per bettors, there is a 68% probability that the Supreme Court will rule against Trump’s tariffs.

The option "Yes" has a 32% probability as per bettors, down by 25%.

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Scaramucci Bets Against Trump Tariffs

Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, predicted a 70% chance that the Supreme Court could eliminate Trump’s tariffs, arguing that their imposition without congressional approval constitutes an unauthorized tax.

Trump had earlier expressed concerns about the potential economic consequences if the Supreme Court ruled against his tariffs, warning of an "economic emergency."

Costco's Lawsuit Against Tariffs

Costco Wholesale Corp. in December filed a lawsuit against the tariffs, seeking a complete refund of all duties collected under the IEEPA. Several companies have filed similar lawsuits in a U.S. trade court since late October, challenging Trump's use of the IEEPA to impose the levies. These companies include Revlon Consumer Products Corp. and Kawasaki Motors Manufacturing Corp.