2026년 2월 11일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Seeking Alpha
[Treasury bonds is shown on the conceptual business photo]
Andrii Dodonov/iStock via Getty Images
U.S. Treasury yields [https://seekingalpha.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-tables/bonds] fell markedly Tuesday after a sluggish retail sales report, prompting traders to lift their expectations for interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note (US10Y [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/US10Y]) retreated seven basis points to 4.14% as of 12:18 p.m. ET, marking its lowest level in weeks. Yields were pulled lower across the curve, with the 2-year tenor (US2Y [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/US2Y]) down four bps to 3.46% and the 30-year (US30Y [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/US30Y]) off eight bps to 4.79%.
The swings come after the U.S. Census Bureau reported that retail sales were flat [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4549450-retail-sales-flatline-in-december-missing-consensus] from November, missing the consensus. Core retail sales—the gauge most closely tied to gross domestic product—also stagnated M/M in December, suggesting momentum in household spending may be starting to slow.
Fed funds futures pricing shifted after the weaker-than-expected report, with traders pushing up the chances of a March cut to 21.6% from 17.2% a day before, nudging April cut odds higher as well (36.9% vs. 32.2%), but still viewing June as the first meeting where a quarter-point cut is the more likely outcome, according to CME Group data [https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html].
With key reports on inflation and jobs still due out this week, investors will be watching closely for further signals on the economy's health and the Fed's policy path.
TREASURY ETFS: (TLT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TLT]), (TLH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TLH]), (IEF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IEF]), (IEI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IEI]), (SHY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SHY]), (SGOV [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SGOV]), (SCHO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCHO]), and (BIL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BIL]).
MORE ON THE U.S. ECONOMY
* Mixed Economic Signals Complicate Fed Rate Cut Path [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4868102-mixed-economic-signals-complicate-fed-rate-cut-path]
* Rout In The U.S. Dollar: A Warning For Non-Farm Payrolls? [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4867933-rout-in-us-dollar-warning-for-non-farm-payrolls]
* China May Quietly Start Dumping Even More U.S. Treasuries [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4867841-china-may-quietly-start-dumping-even-more-us-treasuries]
* Fed hikes broke gold-real rate link: Apollo's Torsten Slok [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4548988-fed-hikes-broke-gold-real-rate-link-apollos-torsten-slok]
* China Treasury fears resurface, but the data shows its grip on U.S. debt Is fading [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4548898-china-treasury-fears-resurface-but-the-data-shows-its-grip-on-u-s-debt-is-fading]