2026년 2월 13일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Yahoo Finance
The rapid expansion of AI in recent years has created a more complicated backdrop for the software industry. While AI continues to drive productivity gains and new revenue opportunities across technology, it is also introducing structural pressures.
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By improving efficiencies, AI systems are reducing headcounts – and that has implications for software companies, who sell subscriptions and products on a per-seat basis. The situation is also complicated on the coding side, where AI makes it possible for customers to code their own apps, rather than buying purpose-built software.
In a recent note on the software sector, Piper Sandler analyst Billy Fitzsimmons outlined the firm’s current take on this beaten-down segment.
“Despite broad-based pullbacks after negative reactions to the initial C4Q prints, we still we believe select pockets of software are better insulated from AI disruption. AI demand is outpacing supply and AI investments are increasing compute/ storage requirements, benefitting the hyperscalers and consumption growth. Meanwhile, vertical software names possess specialized workflows, proprietary data, and strong customer relationships. The customers for specific verticals (the trades, construction) were later SaaS adopters, so it is hard to see them as early vibe coding trailblazers,” the analyst opined.
With that framework in mind, Fitzsimmons highlights two software stocks he believes can buck the broader trend and post gains in 2026, calling both his top picks. One is a well-known name, while the other flies more under the radar – but both carry Buy ratings from Piper Sandler, and as a check of the TipRanks database shows – from Wall Street overall.
Microsoft (MSFT)
We’ll start with a look at Microsoft, the world’s largest software firm – and one of the largest tech companies in the world. Microsoft’s $3.07 trillion market cap ranks it as the fourth-largest publicly traded firm on Wall Street. While Microsoft originally built itself up on the success of its software products – Windows and Office are still the gold standard in PC software – it’s been finding strong success recently in the related fields of AI and cloud computing.
On the AI side, we should note that Microsoft was an early backer of the technology, and put its money where its mouth was. Microsoft started funding OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, with a $1 billion investment in 2019. In the years since, the software giant has backed OpenAI to the tune of over $13 billion – and last year, the two companies formalized their relationship for the future. Microsoft now owns a 27% stake in the AI firm, and OpenAI has committed to spending $250 billion over the next several years on Microsoft’s Azure cloud computing platform. The overall agreement, for Microsoft, represents a massive return on its original investment.
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It also underscores the growing importance of Azure to Microsoft. The subscription-based cloud platform has become one of Microsoft’s hottest products, and the company’s Intelligent Cloud segment, which includes Azure, now accounts for just over 40% of total revenues.
Microsoft is responding to this growth by investing heavily in AI and cloud data centers, which brings us to a sore point for investors and analysts. In the past year, the company has implemented a 65% jump in capital expenditure on data centers, to a total of $37.5 billion. That’s a massive outlay, by any standards, and while the company’s goal of doubling its data center footprint is laudable, the sheer scale of the spending has prompted worries that it may not be sustainable.
Turning to the company’s last quarterly report, which covered fiscal 2Q26, we find that the top line, of $81.3 billion, was up 17% year-over-year and beat expectations by $993.7 million. Microsoft realized non-GAAP earnings of $4.14 per share, for a 24% year-over-year gain – and 22 cents per share better than the forecast. Intelligent Cloud revenue was listed as $32.9 billion, up 29% year-over-year.
We should note that, despite the strong figures, Microsoft’s stock has slipped by 16% since the earnings report. As noted, worries about the size and expense of the data center expansion along with Azure growth that slightly missed expectations lie behind that dip.
The recent softness in Microsoft’s stock is a flashing neon sign for Piper Sandler, saying ‘opportunity.’ Analyst Fitzsimmons writes of the company, “We would remain buyers on any MSFT weakness given 1) AI demand continues to exceed supply (the Azure growth rate as largely handicapped by capacity not slowing demand) and 2) total capex growth is expected to accelerate y/y in FY26 with a pivot towards short-lived assets (GPUs/ CPUs) to support immediate capacity constraints. MSFT is certainly not an out of consensus pick, but in an environment where there are existential questions around the relevance of software, we think it makes sense to stick to a name like MSFT with one of the strongest AI stories.”
Fitzsimmons puts an Overweight (i.e., Buy) rating on Microsoft, along with a $600 price target that suggests a one-year upside potential of 48% for the stock. (To watch Fitzsimmons’ track record, click here)
There are 36 recent analyst reviews on file for Microsoft, and the 32 to 4 split, favoring Buy over Hold, gives the stock its Strong Buy consensus rating. The shares are priced at $404.37 and the average target price, of $593.38, indicates room for 47% growth in the coming year. (See MSFT stock forecast)
ServiceTitan (TTAN)
The second stock we’re looking at here is ServiceTitan, a cloud software company that has chosen to carve out a unique niche for itself. ServiceTitan has put together a cloud-based software platform that targets skilled craftsmen and tr…