2026년 2월 19일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Yahoo Finance
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If you are wondering whether Visa's current share price still lines up with its long term potential, it helps to first get clear on what the recent moves and fundamentals might be saying about value. Visa recently closed at US$319.50, with returns of a 2.6% decline over the last 7 days, a 2.7% decline over 30 days, a 7.8% decline year to date and a 9.8% decline over 1 year, while the 3 year and 5 year returns sit at 48.1% and 56.3% respectively. Recent news coverage has focused on Visa's position as a major global payments network and its role in ongoing shifts from cash to digital payments, which continues to keep the stock on many investors' watchlists. Commentary has also highlighted how broader sentiment around interest rates, consumer spending and fintech competition can influence how the market prices Visa's long term prospects. On our checks, Visa scores a 3 out of 6 valuation score, suggesting that some metrics point to undervaluation while others look more neutral. Next, we will run through the key valuation approaches investors often use before finishing with a way to get a more complete view of value.
Visa delivered -9.8% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Diversified Financial industry.
Approach 1: Visa Excess Returns Analysis
The Excess Returns model looks at how much profit a company is expected to generate above the return required by its shareholders, then adds the value of those extra profits to its current equity base.
For Visa, the starting point is a Book Value of $20.03 per share and a Stable Book Value estimate of $24.44 per share, based on future book value forecasts from 8 analysts. On the earnings side, the model uses a Stable EPS of $17.07 per share, sourced from weighted future return on equity estimates from 12 analysts.
The Cost of Equity is set at $1.78 per share, so the model estimates an Excess Return of $15.29 per share. That implies an Average Return on Equity of 69.87%, which is well above the required return used in this framework. Adding these excess returns to the equity base gives an intrinsic value estimate of about $418.99 per share.
Compared with the recent share price of US$319.50, the Excess Returns valuation points to an intrinsic discount of 23.7%, indicating that the stock appears undervalued according to this model.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Excess Returns analysis suggests Visa is undervalued by 23.7%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 56 more high quality undervalued stocks.
Story Continues
V Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Visa.
Approach 2: Visa Price vs Earnings
For a profitable company like Visa, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to connect what you pay for each share with the earnings that the business is currently generating. Investors usually accept a higher P/E when they expect stronger earnings growth or see lower risk, and a lower P/E when they are more cautious about growth or uncertainties.
Visa is trading on a P/E of 29.57x. That sits above the Diversified Financial industry average P/E of 15.96x and also above the peer group average of 14.45x. This signals that the market is currently paying a higher price for each dollar of Visa’s earnings compared with many alternatives in the same space.
Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework goes a step further by estimating what a reasonable P/E might be once factors like earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and risk are brought together. For Visa, the Fair Ratio is 20.79x, which is meaningfully below the current 29.57x. That tailored yardstick can be more informative than a simple industry or peer comparison because it tries to align the multiple with the company’s own fundamentals and risk profile.
Result: OVERVALUEDNYSE:V P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Visa Narrative
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce Narratives. Narratives let you turn your view of Visa into a simple story linked to a forecast and a fair value. You can then compare that fair value with today’s price on Simply Wall St’s Community page, where Narratives are updated automatically as new news or earnings arrive and can differ widely. For example, one investor may see Visa’s fair value at US$463.49 based on a wide moat and stable growth assumptions, while another may see it at US$243.09 based on regulatory and competition risks. This gives you a clear, easy way to decide whether the current market price lines up with the story you believe.
For Visa however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Visa Narratives:
Both are built from detailed assumptions about payment volumes, margins, regulations and competition. They give you a structured way to decide whether today’s US$319.50 share price fits the story you agree with.
🐂 Visa Bull Case
Fair value estimate: US$397.72 per share
Implied pricing gap: about 19.7% below this fair value based on the latest close
Revenue growth assumption: 10.60% a year
Sees Visa benefiting from the shift away from cash and steady e commerce growth, with Tap to Pay and tokenization increasing transaction volumes and broadening the addressable market. Leans on higher margin value added services, cross border solutions, Visa Direct and stablecoin settlement to support earnings quality and diversify revenue beyond traditional card fees. Factors in free cash flow funded buybacks, ongoing emerging market expansion and analyst consensus forecasts for revenue, margins a…