2026년 2월 20일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Yahoo Finance
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If you are wondering whether Intel's share price around US$45.46 still offers value after its recent run, this article will walk through the key numbers that matter. The stock has pulled back with a 5.9% decline over the last 7 days and 3.2% over 30 days, yet it still shows a 15.4% return year to date and 76.7% over the past year, while the 3 year return is 82.9% and the 5 year return is a 20.9% decline. Recent headlines around Intel have focused on its broader role in the semiconductor industry, including plans to expand chip manufacturing capacity in the US and Europe, ongoing attention on government support for domestic chip production, and commentary on its position in artificial intelligence related computing. These themes have helped shape how investors weigh both the potential and the risks around the stock price moves you have seen. On our valuation checklist, Intel currently scores 3 out of 6. Next we will break down how traditional valuation methods treat the stock, before finishing with a more holistic way to think about what this score really means for long term investors.
Intel delivered 76.7% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Semiconductor industry.
Approach 1: Intel Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company might be worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back to today using a required rate of return. It is essentially asking what all those future dollars are worth in present day terms.
For Intel, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on cash flow projections in US$. The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of about US$11.5b. Analyst and extrapolated estimates in the model show free cash flow moving from US$5.0b of outflow in 2026 to US$24.0b of inflow by 2035, with intermediate projected years such as US$1.6b in 2027, US$4.3b in 2029 and US$7.2b in 2030. Simply Wall St extends analyst estimates beyond 5 years to build this 10 year path.
When all those projected cash flows are discounted back, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about US$29.86 per share. Compared with a share price around US$45.46, that implies Intel is about 52.3% overvalued on this DCF view.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Intel may be overvalued by 52.3%. Discover 53 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
Story Continues
INTC Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Intel.
Approach 2: Intel Price vs Sales (P/S)
For companies where earnings are limited or volatile, investors often look at revenue-based metrics, so the P/S ratio can be a useful cross-check on valuation. The idea is simple: you are asking how many dollars you are paying for each dollar of sales.
What counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/S depends on how quickly revenue is expected to grow and how risky that cash flow might be. Higher expected growth and lower perceived risk can support a higher multiple, while slower growth or higher risk usually point to a lower one.
Intel currently trades on a P/S of 4.30x, compared with the Semiconductor industry average of 5.87x and a peer group average of 9.91x. Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary “Fair Ratio” of 7.56x, which reflects factors such as Intel’s growth profile, profit margins, market cap, risk characteristics and its industry.
This Fair Ratio can be more tailored than a simple comparison to peers or the industry because it adjusts for the specific mix of growth, risk and profitability rather than assuming all chip companies deserve similar multiples. With Intel’s current 4.30x P/S sitting below the 7.56x Fair Ratio, this framework suggests the shares screen as undervalued on a P/S basis.
Result: UNDERVALUEDNasdaqGS:INTC P/S Ratio as at Feb 2026
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Intel Narrative
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way for you to attach your own story about Intel to the numbers, link that story to a forecast for revenue, earnings and margins, and arrive at a personal fair value that you can easily compare with the current share price to decide whether you see Intel as attractive or expensive right now.
On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors already do this by setting their own assumptions and saving them as Narratives. These Narratives then update automatically when new information such as earnings, news or analyst forecasts comes in, so their fair value view adjusts in real time rather than staying frozen on an old model.
For Intel, one Narrative on the platform currently pins fair value close to US$11.35 per share while another sits around US$79.00. This shows how different investors can look at the same company and, based on their own views about Intel’s future, arrive at very different yet clearly structured stories that they can track and refine over time.
For Intel however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Intel Narratives:
These are real investor playbooks, each using different assumptions to turn the same set of facts into a clear view on value. Use them as starting points, not answers, then decide which story feels closer to how you see Intel today.
🐂 Intel Bull Case
Fair value in this bull case: US$79.00 per share
Undervalued versus that fair value: about 42.4% below the bull fair value at the recent US$45.46 share price
Revenue growth assumption:…