2026년 2월 19일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Yahoo Finance
US stocks turned firmly into the red on Thursday as US-Iran fears spurred a continued rally in oil, with Walmart (WMT) earnings and Federal Reserve rate-cut odds in focus.
The SP 500 (^GSPC) fell roughly 0.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed roughly 0.8% each, following a solid advance across the major benchmarks the previous session. The tech-exposed Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC), meanwhile, dipped 0.5%.
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The pullback came as oil extended its biggest daily jump since October amid growing worries of a US military attack on Iran. Brent (BZ=F) crude, the international pricing benchmark, climbed to above $71 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) was near $66 following an Axios report that the Trump administration is edging toward conflict. Against that backdrop, gold (GC=F) rose back above $5,000 an ounce.
Meanwhile, Treasurys were set for their longest run of losses in a month amid oil-driven inflation concerns. Price pressures were already in focus as investors parsed minutes from the Fed's January policy meeting, which revealed deep divides over the future path of rates. The December PCE inflation reading on Friday could help adjust expectations.
Earnings continue, with Walmart (WMT) posting a modest quarterly beat but flagging headwinds in its guidance for the year ahead. Shares rose in early trading.LIVE17 updates
34 mins ago
Jared Blikre
Deere rips to record high amid best month since 1974
Deere (DE) is up over 13% today — its biggest one-day jump since the March 2020 pandemic rebound — blasting to an intraday record and pulling the agriculture complex greener with it.
That pandemic rally would see DE up 12 straight months for a 270% gain, which puts its current five-month streak of over 50% in context. And with 6.5 trading days left in February, the farm equipment manufacturer is already up 27%, having its best month since October 1974 (up 45% that month).
A huge beat and a raise for the first quarter is driving the surge. Deere lifted full-year profit guidance, feeding the “profit trough is near” narrative. CEO John May said the company was "encouraged by the ongoing recovery in demand within both the construction and small agriculture segments," and reiterated that 2026 looks like the bottom of the cycle.
Needless to say, traders are front-running the cyclical recovery with gusto.
One caveat: DE is looking parabolic and needs to hold the recent lows around $590 to $600 to avoid "aping" January's silver trade. 49 mins ago
Jake Conley
Mortgage rates fall to lowest level since September 2022 as applications, starts both grow
Mortgage rates fell to their lowest level since September 2022 in the week ended Feb. 13, according to data released Thursday by Freddie Mac.
Thirty-year loans averaged 6.01% last week, down from the previous week's reading of 6.09% and a pullback from an average of 6.85% a year ago.
The news comes as affordability continues to dominate US consumers' attention, and inflation has remained sticky above the Fed's 2% target. As of Thursday, traders were pricing in a 94% chance that the Fed leaves rates unchanged at its upcoming March meeting.
The drop in mortgage rates also follows data earlier in the week showing mortgage applications grew by 2.8% in the week ended Feb. 13, compared with the previous week's decline of 0.3%.
Data on November housing starts showed a 3.9% month-on-month increase, below economists' estimates of 4.9% but above the previous month's 4.6% decline. Today at 5:06 PM UTC
Jake Conley
Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari: The Federal Reserve is 'pretty close to neutral on where our monetary policy is'
The president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, said he believes the Federal Reserve is "pretty close" to neutral at the current 3.5% to 3.75% target range — leaving little wiggle room to further rate cuts. Traders were pricing in a 94% chance that Fed leaves rates unchanged at its upcoming March meeting.
Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reports:
Read more here. Today at 4:35 PM UTC
Myles Udland
Blue Owl's retail private credit fund halts redemptions
The Financial Times reports:
The fund, which trades under the ticker OBDC, also announced on Wednesday that it would sell $1.4 billion worth of holdings to institutional investors, creating the liquidity for investors to get their capital back.
OBDC shares were down about 2% on Thursday.
Recent concerns about private credit have taken many forms, with the most potent being the exposure that investors in these vehicles might have to investments in software companies — a favorite of the alternative investment space — that may be worth less as a result of AI.
Less relevant to that discussion has been increased access to these vehicles, or those with similar characteristics. Say, for instance, ARK Invest's Venture Fund, which gives retail investors access to private companies, but does not offer the liquidity that many retail investors may assume comes along with this (or any) investment.
Now, these fund sponsors, of course, spend countless hours making sure they are in compliance with SEC rules about letting prospective investors know what they can and cannot expect. And that investors know the terms of a certain fund are subject to change.
But the so-called democratization of finance has taken many forms. The latest and greatest is actually not these "retail private vehicles," but prediction markets that sit alongside your online brokerage account which turn stock trading apps into sports betting venues.
The consistent blurring of all these lines, however, can often end up in the same place — retail investors not fully understanding what they're buying or why things changed.
If you're a professional investor, Jeremy Irons said it best in Margin Call: "We are selling to willing buyers at the…