Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures falter as US GDP cools, Fed-favored PCE inflation heats up

2026년 2월 20일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Yahoo Finance

US stock futures stalled on Friday as investors digested economic data that showed US economic growth cooling in the fourth quarter, while the Fed's favored inflation gauge heated up to end last year. Wall Street also kept an eye out for US-Iran tensions, private credit jitters, and a potential Supreme Court tariff decision.

Contracts on the tech-exposed Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) and the S&P 500 (ES=F) moved down roughly 0.3%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) fell 0.2%, coming off the end of a three-day winning streak on Thursday.

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The "core" personal expenditures index — the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation — showed signs of accelerating last month, rising more than economists expected on a monthly and annual basis. Meanwhile, US GDP cooled last quarter, coming in at 1.4%, far lower than Wall Street had forecast.

At the same time, Wall Street is on alert for stress in the private credit sector, after Blue Owl's (OBDC, OWL) halt to withdrawals. Fears are the move is a "canary in the coal mine" financial crisis-style moment amid concerns about the sector's holdings of software stocks threatened by AI. Blue Owl shares continued to fall in premarket after it sold $1.4 billion in private loans, including to the lender's own insurer.

US-Iran tensions are also in focus, after President Trump said he will decide within 10 days on military strikes unless a nuclear deal is struck. Oil prices retreated, seen as due to relief that a full-on conflict seems off the cards.

Investors are also keyed into whether the Supreme Court will strike down Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs on Friday, as a decision is possible. A host of outcomes remains possible, with perhaps the only certainty for investors being that markets will react, regardless of how the decision goes.LIVE8 updates

4 mins ago

Jake Conley

Fed's favored inflation gauge ticks up 0.4% in December, in sign inflation remains sticky

Prices rose by 0.4% in December over the previous month, marking an increase from the previous month, according to Personal Consumption Expenditures index data released Friday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The growth exceeded economists' expectations of 0.3%, according to Bloomberg's consensus estimates.

So-called "core" PCE, which excludes the more volatile food and energy categories, also rose 0.4% on the month, a step up from the previous month's 0.2% growth. Economists had predicted that the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure would rise by 0.3%.

On an annual basis, the headline and core PCE price indexes rose 2.9% and 3.0%, respectively, in December from the previous year, also slightly above economist estimates for the two gauges.

Meanwhile, personal income remained consistent, rising 0.3% in December on a monthly basis, in line with the previous month's growth and matching economist expectations.

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US GDP growth disappoints, Trump blames government shutdown

The US economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the fourth quarter of 2025.

New data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday showed the economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the final three months of 2025. Economists had expected GDP to grow at an annualized rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter.

In a post on Truth Social ahead of the report, President Trump said the government shutdown that lasted 43 days back in the fall cost the US economy "at least two points in GDP." The president also again called for lower interest rates.

In its release, the BEA said, "Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected downturns in government spending and exports and a deceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by an acceleration in investment."

Underlying spending trends, however, remained solid, with real final sales to private domestic purchasers — the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment — increasing 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in the third quarter.

Friday's report had been set for release on Jan. 29, but data collection was delayed by the shutdown that covered all of October and parts of November. 52 mins ago

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Grail (GRAL) stock sank over 40% before the bell on Friday after the healthcare company's cancer trial results failed to impress investors.

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