2026년 2월 21일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Yahoo Finance
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Microsoft (MSFT, Financials) has fallen more than 17% this year, but options market activity suggests institutional investors are not rushing to hedge against further losses.
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The analysis of the volatility skew for options on March 20 reveals that the implied volatility around the current share price stays very much the same. Put volatility goes up a little bit at lower strike prices, but the growth seems to be gradual rather than an indication of aggressive downside protection.
The structure shows normal hedging activities instead of a sudden need for insurance. On the plus side, call options don't exhibit any extraordinary surges in implied volatility, which supports the idea that traders expect prices to stay stable.
The Black-Scholes-based estimates show that Microsoft's implied one-standard-deviation range through March 20 is between $376.94 and $423.83. That means that markets expect considerable volatility even if they have been weak lately.
Wall Street analysts still have a mostly favorable view. The company has a Strong Buy consensus rating and an average 12-month price target of about $593, which means it might go up a lot from where it is now.
Investors will keep an eye on earnings reports, Azure's expansion in AI, and the overall mood in the IT industry to see if the current drop stabilizes or gets worse in the next several weeks.
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