Supreme Court tariff ruling seen curbing Trump's ability to use energy as a weapon

2026년 2월 21일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Seeking Alpha

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The U.S. Supreme Court's rejection [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4554697-us-supreme-court-strikes-down-trumps-global-tariffs] of President Trump's tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act will limit his power to use energy [https://www.axios.com/2026/02/20/supreme-court-trump-energy-tariffs] to pressure trading partners, analysts told Axios on Friday, after having aggressively used tariffs - even just the threat of tariffs - to gain leverage in reaching trade agreements.

Many of Trump's deals have included pledges to buy U.S. oil and liquefied natural gas, and the president has frequently threatened tariffs to pressure countries not to buy Russian or Iranian oil, but the Supreme Court ruling will "absolutely will limit Trump's ability to wield tariffs for geopolitical pressure," Trevor Sutton, a trade researcher with Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, told Axios.

"One of the oddest and most innovative aspects of Trump's use of IEEPA was the way he used them as quasi-sanctions to punish countries for trade that did not involve the United States," Sutton said, citing India's purchase of Russian oil as an example.

The tariff ruling has little direct effect on crude oil and natural gas, but for energy-related companies, steel tariffs that remain under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act will continue to impact domestic drilling costs, and duties on solar equipment from several Asian countries remain under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.

Oil States International (OIS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OIS]) CEO Cindy Taylor said the court ruling is "welcome news" that could provide a more predictable cost structure for companies that manufacture equipment and provide field services for the oil and gas industry, helping them regain some of their competitive edge; Oil States shares soared 25% on Friday.

The tariff rate on certain Oil States (OIS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OIS]) goods increased from 25% to 98% in mid-2025, Taylor said on the company's earnings conference call [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4872971-oil-states-international-inc-ois-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript], and "with the weaker market in the U.S. and a lot of competition that came into the market, it was very hard to pass those costs on to our customers."

Oil futures ended little changed Friday while posting strong weekly gains on increased concerns about potential U.S. military action against Iran.

Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CL1:COM]) for March delivery fell $0.04 on Friday to $66.39/bbl, and front-month Brent crude (CO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CO1:COM]) for April delivery ended +0.1% at $71.76/bbl; for the week, the Nymex and Brent benchmarks gained 5.6% and 5.9%, respectively.

U.S. natural gas (NG1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NG1:COM]) snapped a three-session losing streak on Friday with a cold shot across the eastern U.S. expected to raise demand in the next few days; the Nymex front-month March contract closed +1.7% to $3.047/MMBtu; for the week, the front-month rose 6%.

Energy stocks, as represented by the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLE]), finished the week +0.9%.

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