2026년 2월 21일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Seeking Alpha
[Donald Trump Delivers Joint Address To Congress]
Win McNamee/Getty Images News
The wrangling over tariffs reached a pivotal moment this week after the Supreme Court’s 6-3 ruling struck down President Donald Trump’s tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The decision effectively dropped U.S. tariff rates to pre-“Liberation Day” levels.
Meanwhile, the decision opened discussion about potential corporate refunds from the tariffs already collected. Analysts provided estimates ranging from $133B to $175B in possible refunds, which will now become the subject of litigation. As a result, markets are recalibrating expectations for both corporate margins and Treasury funding needs.
Analyst sentiment following the decision remained mixed. While bulls pointed to immediate margin relief for import-dependent companies, bears highlighted the messy refund process and increased Treasury borrowing requirements.
Meanwhile, experts also pointed to Trump administration’s intention to pursue alternative tariff mechanisms under a potential Plan B. Within hours of the announcement of the Supreme Court ruling, Trump revealed that he would impose a new 10% global tariff [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4554801-trump-calls-supreme-courts-tariff-ruling-deeply-disappointing].
WHAT DO SEEKING ALPHA ANALYSTS SAY ABOUT THE FUTURE OF TARIFFS?
Following the Supreme Court ruling, optimists argued for a significant tailwind for import-heavy retailers and consumer discretionary stocks. Analysts specifically highlighted companies like Costco (COST [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/COST]), Walmart (WMT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/WMT]) and Amazon (AMZN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMZN]), which could be in line to receive massive refunds. This could potentially fund special dividends, aggressive discounting or capital expenditure boosts.
Meanwhile, the disinflationary environment created by tariff removal could give the Federal Reserve more optionality to cut rates, further supporting equities. Companies such as Nike (NKE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NKE]) and lululemon (LULU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/LULU]) are expected to see relief from input costs, while logistics firms should also benefit, the bulls contended. However, these potential benefits could be blunted by the replacement tariff regime that the president has already announced.
On the bearish side, experts highlighted the significant structural risks that accompany the ruling. The potential $170B in refunds creates an immediate funding burden for the U.S. Treasury, likely requiring increased debt issuance and putting upward pressure on long-term yields.
These analysts also pointed to Justice Kavanaugh’s dissent, which warned of a “messy” refund process that could generate uncertainty for months. More critically, bears noted that committed foreign direct investments totaling $9.6T, including $1T from Japan alone, could be delayed or canceled as trading partners seek to renegotiate deals, raising the specter of a recessionary bear market.
The rating agencies’ previous statements linking tariff revenue to sustaining the U.S. AA+ credit rating add further fiscal concern, the bears added.
Here’s a breakdown of what some analysts had to say:
*
LUCA SOCCI: “The Supreme Court’s 6-3 ruling invalidates Trump’s tariffs… removal is bullish for import-heavy retailers… driving margin expansion and likely special dividends, aggressive discounting, or capex boosts.” - _Trump’s Tariffs Are Gone. A Zero-Interest Loan To The Treasury Appears_ [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4873032-trumps-tariffs-are-gone-a-zero-interest-loan-to-the-treasury-appears]
*
MULTIPLO INVEST: “Many companies will see relief in their cash flows, which could be positive for their shares. Additionally… the United States economy remains resilient, with falling inflation, and there is no reason for me to change my constructive view of the American market.” - _Trump Administration Loses Tariff Case, But Still Has Tricks Up Its Sleeve_ [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4872992-trump-administration-loses-tariff-case-but-still-has-tricks-up-its-sleeve]
*
JACK BOWMAN: “The revocation of the powers to unilaterally tariff whole nations is one that was considered a positive by the market… Replacement tariffs are likely to target specific industries and products rather than blanket tariffs on the whole country.” - _The Supreme Court Nullifies Tariffs_ [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4872970-the-supreme-court-nullifies-tariffs]
*
JAMES FOORD: “Policy risk doesn’t disappear because one legal mechanism failed. Tariffs could come back, and this renewed drama may very well shake markets again.” - _Tariff Drama Isn’t Over Yet_ [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4873017-tariff-drama-isnt-over-yet]
*
DAMIR TOKIC: “The SCOTUS decision is negative for the US economy and increases the chance of a recessionary bear market… committed investments are likely to be permanently delayed if not canceled—and this would be a blow to Trump’s economic agenda.” - _Trump’s Agenda Under Threat: The SCOTUS Strikes Down Tariffs_ [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4873029-trumps-agenda-under-threat-the-scotus-strikes-down-tariffs]
*
AGAR CAPITAL: “Equities are underestimating the second- and third-order implications of the rulings from a fiscal perspective. If the removal of tariffs results in large refund checks to importers… the U.S. Treasury Department may face a large and immediate increase in its funding requirements.” - _Tariffs Cancelled: Risk Eliminated Or A Death Trap?_ [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4872990-tariffs-cancelled-risk-eliminated-or-a-death-trap]
*
EUGENIO CATONE: “President Trump lost an important ally to support his plans: the strategy of using tariffs as negotiating leverage is no longer so feasible.” - _The U.S. Supreme Court Blocks Trump’s Plans: What Now?_ [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4873013-the-us-supreme-court-blocks-trumps…