2026년 2월 24일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Yahoo Finance
AI chipmaker superstar Nvidia (NVDA) is currently scheduled to release its fourth quarter earnings results this Wednesday, February 25, the last of the Magnificent Seven tech names to publish earnings.
New Street Research technology infrastructure analyst Antoine Chkaiban helps break down what Wall Street will be watching from the semiconductor giant, especially as hyperscalers ramp up their capex spending for 2026 and investors pay closer attention to Nvidia's revenue forecasts from China.
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Video Transcript
00:01 Speaker A
I mean it's interesting, this has been sort of the narrative with Nvidia for quite a while now, right? That demand is not an issue at all for as far as the eye can see, supply um is most has mostly been the only constraint. Is there any change with that expected? And do you think I mean, I know that you wrote in a recent note that you think things will be strong for Nvidia in 2026, but 2027 could see stabilization. Does that imply that demand will moderate?
00:32 Speaker B
Yes, I mean I wouldn't call that a stabilization either. I think Nvidia can still grow, you know, beyond 2026, especially, you know, if uh if their shipments are limited by supply this year, you know, that extends the uh potentially the current cycle. But I think it's more about the growth outlook, you know, because even in such a dominant position, you know, Nvidia will have to um make room for alternatives. Uh and that's also weighing on the stock, you know, with with chips like Google's Tensor processing units, uh gaining a lot of momentum lately, not just not just for Google, but also for Anthropic. Even there were like some reports that uh meta would use the chip. Um I think the question is how much of Nvidia's opportunity will be taken by ASICs, you know, by these dedicated chips. And so, even if the stock is relatively cheap, you know, like uh it's trading on 20 times 2027 uh earnings. Um and if you compare that, you know, to the multiples that Nvidia has traded on historically, it's it's quite cheap, but I think now the question is really the pace at which Nvidia will grow in 2027 and beyond if they make room for these alternative chips and whether that that growth will be enough to justify um a re-rating.
02:00 Speaker A
Um, something else I want to ask you about Antoine is China sales because for a good while there, um analysts like yourself and your peers just were just saying not even counting any China sales in their models, right? Because it didn't seem like we it was necessarily going to happen. And I've started to see some analysts maybe start to bring that back in. What do you think that picture looks like?
02:30 Antoine
I think, you know, China will probably remain a source of of concerns, a source of volatility in the stock. I mean, right now the situation is that uh H200 exports are not like forbidden for all customers. You know, you can uh you can have like a case-by-case review by by the administration. Um and uh I mean, and of course, by the way, the administration is going to charge like a like 25% um tariff, you know, uh pay directly to to the United States, you know, for um for these exports. But I think, you know, at that point, um it will like we don't have certainty on whether Nvidia will be able to to to keep shipping those chips. Now it's on the Chinese side as well where um they uh like the Chinese authorities are requiring Chinese firms to match uh their Nvidia purchases, you know, with the with local AI chips as well. So I think, you know, the situation will remain very volatile and um even if you know, China is a very big opportunity for Nvidia, like it used to be 20 to 25% of their revenues historically. Jensen talked about like a 50 billion opportunity. Um I don't uh I don't think, you know, we should uh we should bet too much on those revenues.
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