2026년 2월 24일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Yahoo Finance
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Eli Lilly’s fair value estimate has shifted from US$1,093.22 to US$1,211.21, capturing an updated view of what analysts are willing to pay for its long term earnings power. That move aligns with recent research that emphasizes obesity leadership, cardiometabolic breadth, and deals like Ventyx, while still highlighting valuation and execution risks. As you read on, you will see how these factors shape the evolving narrative and what to watch as new opinions emerge.
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What Wall Street Has Been Saying
🐂 Bullish Takeaways
Barclays initiated Eli Lilly with an Overweight rating and a US$1,350 price target, pointing to GLP 1 weight loss treatments as a "durable structural shift" and arguing that the shares warrant a premium valuation. UBS assumed coverage with a Buy rating and lifted its price target to US$1,250 from US$1,080, citing continued execution and leadership in obesity and viewing the obesity franchise as a key support for its thesis. Scotiabank, Truist, BofA, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and BMO Capital each raised price targets in early February 2026, signaling broad confidence in Eli Lilly’s long term earnings power around obesity and cardiometabolic treatment areas. Clear Street called Eli Lilly a "logical" buyer of Ventyx, highlighting how Ventyx’s NLRP3 assets could complement Eli Lilly’s cardiometabolic, immunology, and neuroscience programs.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
Guggenheim trimmed its price target by US$2 in January 2026, hinting that some analysts are watching valuation and execution risk even as overall sentiment remains positive.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!NYSE:LLY 1-Year Stock Price Chart
We've flagged 2 risks for Eli Lilly. See which could impact your investment.
What's in the News
Eli Lilly plans to use India as a global supply hub, exporting locally produced drugs after seeing early uptake of Mounjaro in the country. The company has built about US$1.5 billion of pre-launch inventory for orforglipron, its experimental oral weight loss drug, ahead of an expected FDA decision in April. Lilly and NVIDIA expect to invest up to US$1 billion over five years in a joint AI co-innovation lab in the San Francisco Bay Area focused on drug discovery and pharma use cases. Eli Lilly outlined more than US$9.5 billion of new U.S. manufacturing investments tied to weight loss therapies, reported multiple Phase 3 readouts across key franchises, completed a US$4.08 billion share repurchase tranche, and issued 2026 revenue guidance of US$80 billion to US$83 billion.
Story Continues
How This Changes the Fair Value For Eli Lilly
Fair value estimate has moved from US$1,093.22 to US$1,211.21, reflecting a modest upward reset in what analysts are willing to pay for long term earnings power. Projected revenue growth rate has shifted from 18.12% to 17.79%, reflecting a slightly more measured view on top line expansion. Assumed net profit margin has adjusted from 42.46% to 40.23%, indicating a more conservative stance on long term profitability levels. Future P/E multiple has moved from 28.54x to 30.45x, so more of the valuation uplift comes from a higher earnings multiple. Assumed discount rate has edged from 6.96% to 6.98%, representing a very small change in the risk and return hurdle applied to future cash flows.
Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative
Narratives connect a company’s business story to the earnings forecasts and fair value estimates behind it. They refresh as new data, research, and risks come in so you can see how the thesis is evolving in real time.
Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Eli Lilly to stay up to date on:
How GLP 1 obesity and diabetes drugs like Mounjaro and Zepbound, along with new assets such as orforglipron, relate to global demand growth and manufacturing expansion. The role of late stage pipeline programs in areas such as Alzheimer’s and other specialty drugs, as well as digital initiatives such as LillyDirect, in shaping longer term revenue and margin potential. Key pressure points, including pricing and reimbursement scrutiny, dependence on a concentrated set of blockbuster drugs, competitive GLP 1 offerings, and the risk that large R&D bets or acquisitions do not pay off as expected.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include LLY.
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