2026년 2월 24일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Yahoo Finance
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If you are wondering whether Netflix shares are pricing in too much optimism or too much doubt right now, you are not alone. The stock last closed at US$78.67, with returns of 2.3% over 7 days, an 8.7% decline over 30 days, a 13.5% decline year to date, a 20.4% decline over 1 year, but a 143.5% gain over 3 years and 42.9% over 5 years. Recent coverage has focused on how Netflix is competing in streaming, its content pipeline, and its efforts to retain and grow its global subscriber base. This context helps explain why the stock has moved around, as investors weigh subscription trends, content spending, and competition. Our valuation checks give Netflix a score of 4 out of 6. This sets up an interesting question about how different valuation methods treat the stock today, and whether an even richer way to think about value might change how you see it by the end of this article.
Find out why Netflix's -20.4% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.
Approach 1: Netflix Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow model takes estimates of the cash a company could generate in the future, then discounts those cash flows back into today’s dollars to arrive at an intrinsic value per share.
For Netflix, the model used here is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $9.58b. Analysts provide explicit free cash flow estimates for the next few years, and Simply Wall St then extrapolates further out, with projected free cash flow reaching about $21.52b in 2030. All of these projected cash flows are discounted back to today using a required return, then summed and divided by the number of shares to get a value per share.
This DCF produces an estimated intrinsic value of about $83.97 per share, compared with the recent share price of $78.67. That implies the shares trade at roughly a 6.3% discount to this model’s estimate, which is a relatively small gap that could easily move either way as assumptions change.
Result: ABOUT RIGHT
Netflix is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.NFLX Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Netflix.
Approach 2: Netflix Price vs Earnings (P/E)
For a profitable company like Netflix, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand for how much investors are paying for each dollar of earnings. It folds many expectations into a single number, and higher P/E ratios are often linked to stronger growth expectations or lower perceived risk, while lower P/E ratios can reflect more modest growth assumptions or higher perceived risk.
Story Continues
Netflix currently trades on a P/E of 30.25x, which is very close to the Entertainment industry average of 30.25x and below the broader peer group average of 68.16x. Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary Fair Ratio for Netflix of 34.06x, which is the P/E level it expects based on factors like earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and company specific risks. This Fair Ratio can be more informative than simple peer or industry comparisons because it is tailored to Netflix’s own profile rather than relying on broad group averages that may mix very different businesses together.
The Fair Ratio of 34.06x is moderately above the current 30.25x, which indicates that Netflix trades below this model-based benchmark.
Result: UNDERVALUEDNasdaqGS:NFLX P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Netflix Narrative
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce Narratives, which are simply your story about Netflix linked directly to the numbers you care about, like fair value, future revenue, earnings and profit margins.
On Simply Wall St, Narratives live in the Community section and let you connect a clear thesis about the business (for example, how advertising, content spending, AI tools or regional growth might play out) to a full financial forecast and then to a fair value that you can compare with today’s share price to decide if Netflix looks cheap or expensive to you.
These Narratives update automatically when new information such as earnings, guidance changes, tax issues or news on potential Warner Bros. Discovery deals is added to the platform. This means your story is always tied to the latest data rather than a static spreadsheet.
For Netflix right now, one Narrative on the bullish end of the range assumes a fair value of about US$1,600 with revenue growth of around 13% and profit margins above 30%. A more cautious Narrative sees fair value closer to US$84 with revenue growth around 11% and profit margins in the mid 20s. This shows how two investors can look at the same company and reach very different but clearly structured conclusions.
Do you think there's more to the story for Netflix? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!NasdaqGS:NFLX 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative mate…