2026년 2월 25일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Yahoo Finance
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Fundstrat’s Tom Lee called Bitcoin’s(CRYPTO: BTC) 50% drawdown a “crypto squall” rather than a structural collapse, arguing technology and crypto sectors could revive as tariff uncertainty lifts.
The Squall vs. Winter Thesis
Lee told CNBC on Friday that Bitcoin’s decline stems from macro shocks, not fundamental weakness in blockchain networks.
He pointed to parabolic growth in Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) daily transactions, accelerating tokenization, and Wall Street integration as evidence the market is expanding.
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“Crypto suffers mainly because gold has done so well, attracting risk appetite away from speculative assets,” Lee said.
“There’s no leverage in crypto, and those seeking high-frequency trades have favored precious metals,” he added.
The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s emergency tariffs, initially triggering a relief rally. Lee said investors are relieved that the ruling puts limits on executive powers.
Technology, software, and crypto sectors were minimally impacted by the original tariff regime and could benefit as uncertainty lifts.
However, Trump escalated alternative tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act to 15%, fueling risk-off rotation.
Bitcoin slid below $65,000 in early Monday morning trading before recovering to $66,000.
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Why This Differs From Past Crashes
Lee emphasized this drawdown differs from prior 50% Bitcoin declines.
It’s a slower, psychologically taxing grind rather than a euphoric collapse followed by an immediate 70% drop.
“We’re experiencing classic bear market blues,” he said. “Non-euphoric tops yield slower grinding retracements, not immediate crashes.”
Monetary policy could support recovery. With tariffs potentially reducing headline inflation and the labor market softening, the Fed gains flexibility to cut rates, creating a more favorable backdrop for risk assets including crypto.
Lee concluded that for those patient enough to understand historical cycles, crypto remains in play.
The old rules of crypto bear markets no longer fully apply, and opportunity may lie in the eye of this squall.
Image: Shutterstock
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