2026년 2월 27일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Yahoo Finance
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
The S&P 500 (SPY) has remained range-bound for nearly four months, hovering below the 7,000 level as investors continue to weigh a mix of artificial intelligence-related volatility, opaque trade policies and elevated geopolitical tensions. That backdrop has led to a noticeable rise in demand for downside protection. Put-call skew, which measures the relative cost of hedging against losses versus positioning for gains, climbed to a two-year high last week, while normalized two-month skew now sits near the upper end of its five-year range. One-month normalized put skew has reached its highest level in more than a year, underscoring how aggressively investors are paying up to guard against a potential drawdown.
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To a growing number of strategists, however, that defensive posture could be setting the stage for a contrarian move. Stuart Kaiser, head of US equity trading strategy at Citigroup, said there has been a tremendous amount of flow into very short-term tactical hedges, even though equity markets over the past six to 12 months have not significantly responded to most geopolitical events. He suggested that if Iran-related risks were to settle, risk premiums could compress and investors who have been sidelined might begin to re-engage on the upside. Data from BNP Paribas support the cautious tone: its investor leverage indicator, which tracks metrics including ETF flows and futures-focused hedge fund strategies, has fallen to levels last seen in November. Greg Boutle, head of US equity and derivatives strategy at BNP Paribas, argued that such pessimistic positioning can act as a buy signal, raising the possibility of a mega tech-led rally over the coming weeks that could drag the S&P 500 through the psychologically important 7,000 level and prompt investors to put capital back to work.
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) may have provided a potential catalyst. The chipmaker posted earnings that topped estimates and issued a better-than-expected revenue forecast, easing concerns, at least for now, that AI spending was becoming a burden. Boutle wrote that a rally following Nvidia's results could open a path for the S&P 500 to reach 7,000, while Bank of America analysts suggested call spreads on the Invesco QQQ (NASDAQ:QQQ) ETF Trust as a way to position for technology upside. Still, retail participation appears to be fading. Non-professional investors accounted for 8.3% of total equity trading volume last week, compared with last year's 11.7% average, according to Citi data, and participation earlier this year fell to the lowest level since 2024. With the US amassing a war force near Iran and the risk of disruption to global energy markets still present, sentiment remains fragile, even as some strategists see opportunity in the prevailing caution.
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