2026년 2월 27일 · Unknown · financial · 출처 Yahoo Finance
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
An options trader is making a calculated wager that Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) could emerge stronger even if it loses the battle for Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD). On Wednesday, the investor deployed roughly $13.8 million into a May $90/$105 call spread, buying 55,000 $90 calls and selling the same number of $105 calls at a net cost of about $2.51 per contract. The structure provides exposure to 5.5 million shares if Netflix advances from around $83, signaling a view that a rally, rather than a retreat, could follow the current uncertainty. If the shares were to climb 30% by the May 15 expiration, the position could generate about $68 million, though even a more modest move higher before then could lift the value of the spread and allow for a profitable exit as implied volatility shifts.
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The trade arrives as Paramount Skydance Corp. (NASDAQ:PSKY) submitted a $31-a-share proposal for Warner Bros., exceeding Netflix's existing $27.75-a-share agreement to acquire the studio and HBO operations. Warner Bros. has not withdrawn its recommendation that shareholders support Netflix's deal, but it said the Paramount terms meet the threshold for additional talks, reinforcing that the outcome is not yet settled. Netflix shares rose about 6% on Wednesday, their biggest gain since April, as investors reassessed the potential paths forward. Should Netflix's bid fall short, the company would receive a $2.8 billion termination fee, a factor that could influence how capital allocation is viewed in the weeks ahead.
Market participants focused on merger arbitrage suggest the positioning may reflect expectations that Netflix could rally if Paramount ultimately prevails, possibly because the streaming group would retain capital otherwise committed to the transaction while also collecting the breakup payment. At the same time, Politico reported that Chief Executive Ted Sarandos is scheduled to visit the White House on Thursday to discuss the Warner Bros. bid, a development that could indicate the company has not ruled out revisiting its offer. With competing proposals, political engagement, and a sizable termination fee in play, the setup remains dynamic, and the options market's nearly $14 million commitment underscores that some investors see room for a meaningful move in Netflix shares.
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